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1st 2019E

CONTENT

EFFICIENCY AND QUALITY

Panibratov Y.P., Ofin V.P.

The problem of risks in projects of public-private

partnerships with foreign participation and their classification ……... 3

PRICING AND ESTIMATED DEAL

Karakozova I.V.

Analysis of the application of federal normative and

methodical documents in order to ensure a unified approach

in defining a valid estimated construction costs …………………….. 17

ECONOMIC SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC PRACTICE

Sagadeev R.A.

Forecasting cash flows of investment projects by the method

of annuities transformation ………………………………………….. 29

Reznik S.D., Khol'kina O.V.

Network analysis of the environment of the construction industry …. 44

ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT  

Oparin S.G., Stasishina-Olshevkaya A.E.

Methodological foundations of risk management

of need in additional financing of construction ………………………. 61

The problem of risks in projects of public-private

partnerships with foreign participation and their classification

Panibratov Yuri P., doctor of economic Sciences, Professor of the Department of Economics of construction and housing, St. Petersburg state University of architecture and construction, academician of RAASN, honored scientist of the Russian Federation, Laureate of the state prize of the Russian Federation, tel. / fax +7(812) 495-35-23; e-mail: panibratov@spbgasu.ru;

Ofin Veniamin P. – candidate of economic Sciences, head of the Department of Economics, JSC "Petersburg – Dorservice", tel./fax +7(812) 325-91-62, ext.140; e-mail: ofin@dor.spb.ru.

Keywords:public-private partnership, risks, stage of implementation.

A significant inflow of funds from the export of fuel and energy complex products in the early XXI century did not lead to a large-scale implementation of long-term investment projects in Russia. This is an important sign, showing that the presence of significant funds in the economy is not a sufficient basis for active investment activity. The conditions created are essential. Economic agents operating in the Russian Federation are overwhelmingly determined to implement short-and medium-term projects. This applies to both business and financial institutions. PPP projects can have a positive effect by aggregating management, financial, technological and other resources of the public sector and business, but participants should abandon the common approach, where only the positive aspects of the projects are indicated. PPP projects are characterized by the presence of many risks that lead to problems in the course of their implementation.

References

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2.   Fisher O.V. Tax uncertainty, as a condition of the tax activity of the taxpayer in Rus-sia / O.V. Fisher, L.G. Chankseliani // Nalogi i nalogooblozhenie [Taxes and taxa-tion], 2012, no 4, pp. 67-73 (in Russ.).

3.   Pupykin R.A. Specificity of state risks in political decision making / R.A. Pupykin // Ekonomicheskie i gumanitarnye issledovaniya regionov [Economic and Humanitarian Studies of the Regions], 2011, no 6 (in Russ.).

4.   Chefranov A.S. Risks in public-private partnership projects / А.S. Chefranov // Sci-ence SUSU. Sections of Economics, Management and Law: materials of the 63rd scientific. conf. / resp. for issue S.D. Vaulin; South-Ural. state Un-t .- Chelya-Binsk: SUSU Publishing Center, 2011.- T. 3, pp. 211-214 (in Russ.).

Analysis of the application of federal normative and methodical documents in order to ensure a unified approach in defining a valid estimated construction costs

Karakozova Irina V., Ph.D. (technical), docent,State Autonomous Institution of Moscow «Scientific Research Center», Moscow, Russia, tel. + 7 (495) 620 20 00 (ex. 20723); e-mail: KarakozovaIV@str.mos.ru

Keywords: price reform, document system, methodological supply, estimated standards, estimated cost.

The article considers current federal normative and methodical documents regarding the procedure for the formation of reliable estimated cost of construction. Comparisons are made between main terms and their definitions used in the field of pricing and estimated standardization in Construction. Additionally, the article provides information on previously valid documents containing terms and their definitions. Brief description of process of creation of standard-methodical document for supplying of process of calculation of budgeted expenditures in construction, as well as content and the structure of the system of documents in the area of pricing and budgeted regulation in construction is presented.

References

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8. Karakozova I.V. "Harmonization of TSN-2001 and FSNB-2001 bases – goals and objectives of work, phasing, results evaluation" M.: // Stroitelnye materialy oborudovanie tehnologii XXI veka [Building materials, equipment, technologies of the XXI century], 2017, no 9-10, pp. 52- 54 (in Russ.).

9. Karakozova I.V., Prokhorova Y.S. Methodological support of the process of forming the value of upcoming costs in construction / Materials of the All-Russian scientific-practical conference in memory of Yury Nikolaevich Kulakov. On the 70th anniversary of his birth (November 29, 2018): a collection of essays / the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russian Federation, Moscow: Publishing house MISI-MGSU, 2018. - p. 113-117 (in Russ).

10. Karakozova I.V. Justification of the need to develop methodological approaches to assess the economic efficiency of new technologies in construction. Moscow: // Ekonomika i predprinimatelstvo [Economics and Entrepreneurship], 2014, no 5, part 2 (46-2), pp. 950-954 (in Russ.).

11. Karakozova I.V., Prokhorova Yu.S. Foreign and national experience in assessing the value in an investment and construction project. M.: // Ekonomika i predprinimatelstvo [Economics and Entrepreneurship], 2015, no 6, part 3 (59-3), pp. 608-613 (in Russ.).

Forecasting cash flows of investment projects by the method of annuities transformation

Sagadeev Rustem,Ph.D. (technical), docent, Manager of the Center for Construction Production and Complex Security of the Construction Facilities of the Institute for Additional Professional Education GASIS of the National Research University "Higher School of Economics". Address: Moscow, st. Profsoyuznaya, d.33, korp.4, e-mail: gasis-sp2@yandex.ru

Sagadeev R.A.,the Institute for STR GASIS National Research University «Higher school of Economics», Moscow, Russia

Keywords: conventional cash flows, internal rate of return, basic annuity, transformed annuities, transformation points, interaction lines.  

Investment projects for reconstruction, expansion, modernization and technical re-equipment of existing enterprises are being developed to substantiate the feasibility and effectiveness of production investments. The baseline data for justifying the effectiveness of investments are the cash flows generated by the project. In many cases, cash flows are conventional flows with cash outflows at the beginning of a project and their inflows during its implementation. In developing the project, it is assumed that during its implementation, the cash flows will correspond to the planned indicators. However, in conditions of uncertainty, cash flows can not be planned exactly. It is impossible to determine for many years to come the adequate value of the discount rate, which unambiguously influences the value of the net present value of the project. In investment projects related to the reconstruction and technical re-equipment of production enterprises, there is a need to adjust and forecast cash flows in the process of project implementation, based on actual cash receipts. Forecasting cash flows using the proposed method of transforming annuities makes it possible to generate equivalent cash flows, including actual cash receipts, in them, and to determine the necessary amount of future net cash inflows at a given level of the project's internal rate of return. The method does not depend on fluctuations of the discount rate, since it is based on the formation of alternative cash flows with a focus on transformation points, allowing to maintain the calculated value of the internal rate of return in the process of converting annuities. The formulas allow you to determine the position of transformation points within the planning horizon and identify the level of future cash flows, taking into account current cash receipts. The calculations illustrate the sequence of formation of alternative equivalent cash flows, taking into account the actual cash receipts that coincide and differ from the planned indicators, as well as the options for forecasting cash flows for different values of the internal rate of return of the project. The method makes it possible to include the actual cash flows in the generated equivalent cash flows, to control the level of the internal rate of return and, going to a higher or lower level, to assess the sustainability of the project. The use of the method of transformation of annuities together with methods of scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, decision tree and other methods of risk assessment and analysis is advisable for more efficient use of data on future cash flows, projected taking into account actual cash receipts, while justifying rational options for the implementation of investment projects in conditions of uncertainty.

References

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2. Blank I.A. Cash flow management. - Kiev : "Nika-center", 2002, p.736 (in Russ.).

3. Guidelines for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects (second edi-tion) / Min. Econ. RF, Min. Fin. RF, GK on construction, architecture and hous-ing politics; hands auth. col.: Kossov V.V., Livshits V.N., Shakhnazarov A.G. - M.: OJSC “NPO“ Publishing house “Economics”, 2000. p. 421 (in Russ.).

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Network analysis of the environment of the construction industry

Reznik Semen Davydovich, doctor of Economics, Professor, head of the Department "Management" of Penza state University of architecture and construction. Address: ul. Hermann Titov, 28, Penza, 440028, Russia, tel. (8412) 55-75-53; e-mail: disser@bk.ru.

Holkina Olga Valerievna, post-graduate student, Department of Management, Penza state University of architecture and construction. Address: 28, Germana Titova str., Penza, 440028, Russia, tel. (8412) 55-75-53; e-mail: olga-chapurina@yandex.ru

Keywords: network analysis, operating environment, the construction industry, regions.

The dynamics of socio-economic indicators of the construction industry in the Russian regions is presented. On the basis of network analysis of the operating environment, the calculations of socio-economic indicators of construction development in the regions of the country are made. Coefficients of estimation of efficiency of development of construction for several years are calculated. The calculated index of performance of the construction industry in the regions from 2015. by 2017. The use of nonparametric optimization method allowed to identify the most effective regions for the development of construction. It was given recommendations for the development of the construction industry in the regions of the Russian Federation is step-by-step measures to enhance investment in construction and a model for the further development of construction in Russia.

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Methodological foundations of risk management of need in additional financing of construction

Oparin Sergey G.,doctor of Technical science, Professor, Petersburg State Transport University of the Emperor Alexander I, St. Petersburg, Russia, tel. +7(812) 457-85-05; e-mail: oparinsg@mail.ru

Stasishina-Olshevkaya Anastasiya Ev.,master, Petersburg State Transport University of the Emperor Alexander I, St. Petersburg, Russia; e-mail: stasishinanastya@gmail.com

Keywords:consistency of determining the cost of construction, risk of need in additional financing of construction, risk management, level of risk, price of risk, reserve of resources for unforeseen expenses.

The article discusses topical issues of cost estimate of investment and construction projects under uncertainty and risk. The emphasis is on consistency of determining the cost of construction estimating taking into accountthe risk of need in additional financing of construction. We have proposed the innovative methodology of managing the risk of need in additional financing, which has a practical importance for investors and ordering organizations in the conditions of limited resources. A risk situation is considered and the sources and factors of risk are defined, the criteria and methods of identification, analysis and comparative assessment of risk are substantiated depending on the «price of risk» and «level of risk». Moreover, we have offered the method of identification and construction a risk profile and the algorithm for justifying the reserve of resources for unforeseen expenses. The modern standardized procedures of risk management, methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk, including the method of sensitivity analysis, the method of scenarios and the Oparin — Teterin digital method of integrated convolutions of the numerical sequences have been applied for achieving the goal of the study. More than that, we have developed the software of management of the risk of need in additional financing of construction on the PC in Microsoft Excel. Therefore, we have considered the possibilities of using the method of integrated convolutions of numerical sequences for assessing the accuracy and consistency of determining the cost of construction of facilities of transport infrastructure.

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